Published annually in partnership with McCoy Power Reports and energy consultant Dora Partners, the Gas Turbine World Market Forecast tracks global industry orders – by OEM market share and model designation – for Heavy Frame, Light Industrial and Aeroderivative gas turbines for Electric Power Utility (EPU) and Oil & Gas (O&G) sectors of the world market.
The 2021 Market Forecast includes historical data for the last five years (including 2020 YE results) and detailed outlook for MW and Unit orders (2021-2025) for Heavy, Light and Aero units plus a ten-year forecast of annual MW and Unit orders (2021-2030). To accomplish this, we track engineering and sales activities of leading Gas Turbine OEMs in the industry who together account for over 95% of the global market for gas turbines above 3MW unit output.
On a capacity basis, gas turbines sized 150MW or greater have dominated order activity over the past 5 years with units sized 300MWs or more increasingly taking a larger share of the market. Measured on the basis of MWs, order activity in 2020 was down 3.2% over 2019, while Unit orders were up 0.3%. Overall, this was a good result, given ongoing disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
On a unit order basis, gas turbines sized 10MW or less have seen their share of the market continue to decrease, and we anticipate this trend to continue. The market for small gas turbines under 5MW has almost disappeared due to inroads by reciprocal engines.
Key Market Drivers
Looking ahead, we anticipate major coal retirements in North America, Germany and China will mainly benefit large Heavy Frame gas turbines. Aero gas turbines, which provide backup capacity for Renewable energy, will also benefit from higher demand and steady pricing.
Notable trends by Sector
- In the Oil & Gas Sector: despite the significant decline in activity, the most notable trend is a large drop in units sized 1-5MW, 10-15MW and 20-30MW.
- In the Electric Power Utility Sector: units in the 30-40MW range (mobile units) are up and 300MW+ units have rocketed; the 40-150MW range is down over 50%.
2021-2025 Market Forecast by Technology
- Aeroderivative Gas Turbine Sales: total of $8.4B of Equipment-Only purchases are expected over the next 5 years.
- Heavy-Frame Orders: total of $36.3B of Equipment-Only purchases expected over the next 5 years.
- Light Industrial Unit Orders: total $2.8B of Equipment-Only purchases expected over the next 5 years.
The 58-page digital report and the accompanying file (in Excel) details OEM and unit-by-unit orders, forecast, and market share. You can preview (and purchase) the report here: ORDER NOW
